Global shipping from a container to a rapid drop in the hard to find goods. Behind the slump, all shipping companies are facing freight, stock price and earnings of the three kill!
According to our quoted Taiwan media when news of the latest report said: global high inflation problem difficult to solve, the public willingness to spend a dramatic reversal, knock-on effects the sentiment of container shipping industry, especially in the third quarter American line imports season anemic more dash forward show already, Eva, Yang Ming and the real profit more than 9 years Wan Haiming, wan hai container mitsuo is more likely to be in the first carriers to losses!
The report said: Global container shipping market supply demand rapid contraction, adjust double negative attacks, freight index of the great recession, investment institutions kgi cast of thought, the three shipping companies in Taiwan Eva (2023), Yang Ming, Wan Haiming year profit will drop all render bluffs type, even started to loss, this is the HSBC and citigroup global securities after conservative, the market the most cautious view.
Kgi cast gu pointed out that inflation pressures, limited terminal consumption, retail brands more aggressively to inventory, review of the third quarter, the line import season not flourishing, especially 9 month minus 11%, demand shrank more than expected, the latest estimates the line in the fourth quarter season imports to minus 5%, minus 4%, global container transportation will be zero growth this year, next year's demand growth rate of only 2%
On the supply side, U.S. line capacity fell 5 percent quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, matching the decline in demand, but the 3 percent monthly decline in September lagged 11 percent of the decline in demand, accelerating the imbalance between supply and demand. Secondly, the capacity reduction of the American line was mainly initiated by 2M and OCEAN Alliance, which was put into Europe, the Middle East, Africa and South America. As a result, the oversupply situation spread, some ships were scheduled, and the routes with shrinking demand side even had negative freight rates. Looking ahead to October, U.S. line capacity is expected to be cut by 5 percent to 10 percent, still lagging demand declines.
Considering the accelerating imbalance between supply and demand and the fact that spot prices on all routes have fallen below the contract price and are being executed at the spot linked price, the US-West line has even fallen below the cost line of non-alliance carriers. Kgi estimates that the US-West line and the Asian line will turn into a loss this quarter, while the US-East line and the European line will turn into a loss in the first and second quarters of next year respectively.
Impact, large research institutions estimate that shipping three Xiong next year's profit will suffer a great decline, Evergreen net profit after tax per share (EPS) from 165.66 yuan (NT $, the same below) this year, decline by 94.9% to 8.51 yuan next year, 2024 profit to loss; Yangming's EPS fell from 54.61 yuan to 0.61 yuan, and next year's profit is equivalent to 1% of this year's, and like Evergreen, it will turn into a loss in 2024.
Wan Hai is not an alliance, must be under the kill offer to maintain the carrying rate, according to the legal person estimate, will be the earliest year in the three male turn loss, EPS from this year's 35.8 yuan, a breathing into next year's net loss per share 5.27 yuan.
Post time: Oct-21-2022